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The US-India nuclear deal represents a huge victory
for India, a clear recognition by the international
community that India is, in all but name, a recognised
nuclear weapon state. It gives India full access to
the international nuclear energy market, in return for
a nominal concession. Even the extent of this
concession, international safeguards on more power
plants than India currently permits, will be
determined by New Delhi, not the international
community.
How sweet this deal is to India can be partly gauged
by the fierce opposition being put up by the nuclear
non-proliferation lobby in Washington. Anything that
can make the non-proliferation fundamentalists froth
in the mouth has got to be good for us!
Over the past two decades, it has become abundantly
clear that without a huge increase in public
investment in the domestic Indian atomic energy
sector, which was not feasible, nuclear energy would
not become a serious option for India.
India’s response was to seek international turnkey
projects, which could make atomic energy a serious
alternative without requiring a huge investment boost
in the indigenous effort. This was a logical choice,
and one that was endorsed by several previous
governments in New Delhi, as they sought atomic power
plants from both Russia and France.
But the global nuclear order was not particularly
receptive to India’s needs. The rules of the
non-proliferation regime tightened in the 1990s to
require full-scope safeguards. Which meant India had
to put all of its nuclear plants and establishments
under international safeguards, in return for any new
foreign-supplied atomic power plants. India was
unwilling to offer anything better than partial
safeguards.
In other words, international safeguards only on
plants that it bought from outside, not for the atomic
establishment that India already had. Indeed, six of
India’s atomic plants were already under such partial
safeguards.
What the US-India nuclear deal does is to bridge the
gap between what India was prepared to offer the
international community and what the non-proliferation
regime was willing to accept. India’s offer could be
termed ‘partial safeguards plus,’ because it does
offer additional Indian atomic power plants to be put
under international safeguards. But how many and what
plants it wants to put under such international
safeguards is up to India.
Under the deal, India will have to eventually identify
which of its nuclear establishments are
weapons-related and which are civilian, and put the
civilian plants under international safeguards. This
is far less than the current international
non-proliferation norm, which requires international
safeguards on all nuclear establishments within the
country. In essence, what the deal does is to offer
India the same consideration as that offered to the
five states recognised as nuclear weapon ones under
the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). Only those
countries are allowed by the NPT to have nuclear
weapons establishments.
Under this deal, India will be a NPT-recognised
nuclear weapon state in everything but name. India’s
objections to safeguards were always designed to
protect our weapons establishments, not because we had
any particular objections to safeguards per se. Of
course, this deal does require India to separate the
weapons and civilian establishments.
The other objection to the deal is that this requires
significant additional work by the US administration
to change domestic American law, as well as to work
with its allies to make changes in the
non-proliferation regime to accommodate India. That
the US has got Mohamed El Baradei, the head of the
International Atomic Energy Agency, to endorse the
deal, suggests that the US is willing and prepared to
carry through this deal.
The writer is associate professor in international
politics, Jawaharlal Nehru University, Delhi
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